Highlights

• G7 ministers agree to release between 30 crore and 40 crore barrels from strategic reserves
• Decision taken amid Middle‑East conflict‑driven price spikes
• Brent crude and WTI prices slipped about 10 % after the news broke
• International Energy Agency officials joining the emergency talks
• Market analysts warn impact may be limited without broader supply easing
• Outlook points to possible further releases if price volatility persists

G7 Decision Unpacked

The finance chiefs of the G7 – Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United States and the United Kingdom – convened an emergency session today. Their agenda: how to temper soaring oil prices caused by the ongoing war in the Middle East. Sources cited by the Financial Times say the ministers will discuss moving 30‑40 crore barrels of crude from their collective strategic stockpiles into the market.

That matters because the volume dwarfs the IEA’s 24 crore‑barrel release after the 2022 Russia‑Ukraine war. If approved, the new dump would be roughly one‑and‑a‑half times larger, a signal that the G7 is willing to lean on its reserves to stabilize prices.

Oil Market Reaction

Within minutes of the announcement, traders saw Brent crude and WTI pull back from the 30 % surge recorded earlier in the week. By 3:15 pm Kathmandu time the two benchmarks were up roughly 10 % on the day, still well above the $100‑per‑barrel threshold that has defined the market since last summer.

The price dip was modest, but it halted the frantic buying that had driven the earlier spike. Analysts note that while the release will add supply, the sheer size of the global market means the effect will be gradual.

Metric	Current	Previous
Brent price	$108 per barrel	$119 per barrel
WTI price	$104 per barrel	$115 per barrel
IEA reserves released	24 crore barrels (2022)	—

Price Dynamics Explained

Three forces are shaping the current price landscape:

1. Supply shock – Conflict‑related disruptions in the Middle East have trimmed global output.
2. Strategic releases – The G7 move adds a sizable, though temporary, boost.
3. Demand resilience – Despite higher rates, global consumption remains strong, especially in Asia.

The net result is a market that is still price‑volatile, but with a ceiling that may be nudged lower if the release proceeds as planned.

Geopolitical Ripple Effects

The announcement also reverberated beyond the oil desk. Earlier this week, Financial Times reported that IEA members, including the United States, were eyeing additional stockpiles for release. Yet European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen had just told the agency that there was “no shortage” in the market, a statement now contradicted by the G7’s emergency meeting.

That shift underscores how quickly geopolitical narratives can flip when price pressure mounts. It also hints at a broader consensus forming among the world’s biggest economies that coordinated action may be required to keep energy security intact.

Looking Ahead

If the ministers seal the deal, the G7 will begin moving oil within days. A timeline released by the IEA outlines three phases:

Phase	Date	Details
Announcement	25 Feb 2026	Public statement, market notification
Initial Release	1 Mar 2026	First 10 crore barrels to market
Full Deployment	15 Mar 2026	Remaining barrels shipped

Even with the release, analysts caution that oil price stability will depend on how quickly the market absorbs the extra supply and whether other producers, notably OPEC+, adjust output in response. The next few weeks will be a litmus test for coordinated supply‑side interventions.

For a deeper dive into how strategic reserves have shaped past price cycles, see our analysis of the IEA’s 2022 release.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: How many barrels are the G7 planning to release? A: The ministers are discussing a range of 30 crore to 40 crore barrels, which is larger than the 24 crore barrels released by the IEA in 2022.

Q: When will the oil start flowing into the market? A: The first tranche of 10 crore barrels is slated for 1 March 2026, with the full amount expected by 15 March 2026.

Q: Will the release bring Brent and WTI prices below $100 per barrel? A: Prices are likely to stay above $100 for now; the release should curb further spikes rather than plunge the market.

Q: Which countries are part of the G7 decision? A: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United States and the United Kingdom.

Q: How does this move compare to the IEA’s previous intervention? A: The upcoming release is roughly 1.5 times larger than the 24 crore‑barrel dump after the 2022 Russia‑Ukraine conflict.

Q: What could happen if the price pressure continues? A: The G7 may consider additional releases or coordinate with OPEC+ to adjust production, aiming to keep global supply balanced.